During the
presidential election campaign of 2016 Donald Trump quickly made headlines with
his bold statements on domestic and
foreign issues. He would repeal and replace Obamacare, build a great
southern wall “to keep the bad guys out,” rebuild the aging American
infrastructure and turn the fight with the Islamic State into high gear by
“bombing the shit out of them.”
Trump’s controversial travel ban, aimed at monitoring and decreasing
the arrival of Muslims from a number of Middle Eastern countries for so-called
security reasons, caused a major uproar as thousands of people took to the
streets across the States to voice their concerns over the direction this new
administration was taking their country. Although the first draft was dismissed, the administration made it clear that it
would put it forward again as the threat was real and it was only a matter of
time before an attack took place without the necessary precautions. The
American Supreme Court recently decided to allow certain parts of the ban to be
implemented although there are still ambiguous terms in there that will cause problems
in the near future.
President Trump’s unique insights on how to
revitalize the American economy would lead to the withdrawal from the Paris
Climate Accord as there was no convincing argument regarding global warming. The
(non-binding) agreement was extremely hard on the United States’ coal mining
industry while other global powers such as India and China could even increase
their emission output. The Dakota Pipeline project that was put on hold because
of environmental concerns was restarted despite protests and concerns from
several politicians. As the whole world continues to put its hope in renewable
energies, the Trump administration sticks to coal and oil and now even has
plans to expand its fracking operations, something that was deemed too
expensive before and could potentially be dangerous to the countries’ water
supplies although these concerns are dismissed because at the moment there
haven’t been any conclusive studies.
After
taking office, Trump was quick to resurrect and push through an arms deal with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,
worth over one billion dollars, which was tabled under the Obama administration
because it was considered immoral as the ordnance might be used in the Syrian
conflict as well as Yemen. The Trump administration had no such qualms as it
was “a great deal” that would result in a major boost of the American economy
and a much-needed win for the president. Trump was also quick to pick the
Saudis’ side in their beef with Qatar
as the Wahhabi kingdom moves to send a clear message through the Arabian
peninsula that working with its regional nemesis Iran would be very unwise.
Interestingly the rest of the administration was more hesitant to declare a
side as Qatar hosts an important American base that provides the U.S. with a
foothold in the region.
Trump also took the gloves off in the fight against
the Islamic State as the air campaign against the terror group was
intensified and additional forces were sent to provide training and indirect
fire support in the campaigns in Mosul and Raqqa. This escalation resulted in a
noticeable increase in civilian casualties, something the previous administration
tried to avoid. Although it has to be said that this number could only increase
as the fighting would intensify in urban areas, dropping heavy ordnance on
civilian infrastructure when it is known that civilians are used as human
shields sends the wrong message to the people you’re trying to liberate and get
on your side, period.
The Trump administration’s attitude towards the
Assad regime has changed a number of times as they initially wanted him
gone, then wanted him to stay to provide some stability in the transition
period (when it still looked like the status quo was still somewhat in effect).
However after the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province the
administration called Assad unfit for office and even fired Tomahawk missiles toward
a Syrian airbase “to send a clear message,” only to declare a few months later (by
Rex Tillerson) that Assad’s future should be determined by Russia, effectively
declaring that Russia was in the driving seat from then on. This constant
shifting does not inspire confidence in the US’ long-time allies and the
proxies it is backing on the ground.
Trump’s
newest attempt to show his diplomatic prowess may very well be the final nail
in the coffin for the American influence in the Syrian conflict and the region.
By ending the CIA-funded arming program
in support for these groups it can only spell certain doom for them as the
American-supplied Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs) are an essential part of
the rebels’ strategy in holding the Assad forces at bay. Even worse is that it
was done to mend the relationship with Russia, a backer of Assad, which could be perceived by the rebel groups as a
form of betrayal. What few moderate groups remain in Syria are now at risk
of disbanding completely or being absorbed by more radical groups such as Hay’at
Tahrir al-Sham. This group is one of the dominant factions in the opposition
and currently moves to secure its hold over the other rebel groups in Idlib
province.
It is very
possible that this initial dismay could
turn into an anti-American (or anti-western) attitude which could lead to an effective recruiting ground for
terror groups that aim to carry out attacks against western installations
or assets in the region or even on their home turf. This could lead to a difficult
relationship with its regional partners, for example the kingdom of Jordan, as they could get caught in the
crossfire. Other partners who are have been looking for opportunities to
increase their influence and role in the region, Turkey and Israel, might even
distance themselves further from the Trump as they begin to set their own
course that serves their own interests best, rather than looking towards the
U.S. for approval.
It looks
like Trump’s policy of ‘America First’
is becoming reality, but not the way he intended…By charting a course for the
U.S. that serves its own agenda this administration will continue to alienate
the country from its allies and erode the foundations of several important
institutions it was one a prominent member of… ‘America First’ could very well
become ‘America Alone’ while other countries move in to fill the vacuum.
If you have any questions, remarks or constructive feedback on the content or my writing, please do not hesitate to leave a comment. I would love to use this platform to interact with people to discuss topics like these and gain new perspectives and improve on my writing skills.
No comments:
Post a Comment