(Middle East) Fault Lines in the Middle East: Fresh water

A basic necessity

As the population of the world continues to grow, our global reserves of natural resources are pushed to their limits in order to meet these demands. One of these resources, clean drinkable water, could have been taken for granted for too long and as it becomes more valuable year after year, it could become a serious point of contention in the near future in the region.

Historically, our species quickly understood the importance of fresh water to sustain its survival in the long term and many of the first settlements could be found next to large regional rivers, such as the Nile river in Egypt, the Euphrates and Tigris river in Mesopotamia, Indus in South Asia and the Yellow river in modern China.

Local rivers or wells could supply the fresh water that was needed in the fields or domestic usage, but as our species’ population exponentially began to increase, the demand for fresh water rose dramatically. New wells were dug across the region which lowered the ground water level and it was unable to replenish at the rate that it was pumped up, making matters worse over time. A good example of this is the Jordan river, where the water level dropped drastically in just over a decade. Where people used to be at the risk of drowning, they can now stand in the river up to their wastes.

The building of dams was also a viable option but it lead to neighbouring countries that were depending on the same river complaining about a certain amount of water that had to be guaranteed at all times, leading to regional tensions. This was the case when Turkey built a dam on the Euphrates river of which both Syria and Iraq were depending for their own needs. Intensive negotiations took place in order to ensure that all countries involved were ensured of their fair share of fresh water.

Some countries were lucky to find new large deposits of fresh water that they could start using to meet the country’s demands. Libya found a large aquifer in the southern part of the country and started an enormous project, the Great Man-Made River project, to get the necessary infrastructure in place to pump it to the coastal areas.

Desalination as a possible solution

Israel is one of the few countries in the region that is affluent when it comes to fresh water supply. Although it used to suffer from water shortages, efforts have been made to turns things drastically around. Not only was there a broad spectrum of information that was used to sensitize the population of the importance of not wasting fresh water, but new research led to large facilities where salt water could be converted into fresh water through desalination. Through this process the Israeli population could be supplies with a large amount of fresh water in a relative short of time.

The success of this project led to many other countries undertaking similar projects and in the gulf region there are now dozens of desalination plants. Problem solved? Not quite. There is still not enough information at hand whether desalination is the solution to the problem of fresh water shortages. The desalination process produces a very concentrated waste that is dumped back into the sea. Because of lack of data about the possible effects on the ecosystem and biodiversity no efforts were made to regulate how the waste should be processed before being released back into the sea (or if the concentrate should be released at all). 

Desalination is also very energy-intensive as the process basically involves pushing large quantities of water through numerous layers of membranes that filter the various unwanted elements out of the water before distributing it into the local grid. Numerous plants were also built that aimed to turn the waste from domestic usage back into usable water supplies that could be used to water crops, resulting in a system that re-uses the available water supply many times over.

Water politics

It has been proven that having control of a vital supply of fresh water provides a lot of leverage and could over time even be used as effective as any other weapon of war.

After the establishment of the caliphate, Turkey drastically cut the water flow into Syria resulting in a dramatic drop of the water level along the Euphrates’ numerous settlements. When the situation worsened the jihadists even threatened to march on the Turkish capital ‘and force them to release the water needed’. Now that the Syrian Democratic Forces control large swathes of the Euphrates river, one who is also an enemy of Turkey, it could resort to similar tactics to force the organisation to accept unfavourable terms in the future.

A similar situation could be developing between the Kurdish Regional Government and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The KRG has stated several times that there wasn’t enough water flowing into the western part of the region because Iran had altered the flow. This could be to increase pressure on the KRG for its support of Iranian Kurds who are also pressing their claim in Iran for more equality, the recognition of their cultural identity and reforms.

Israel on the other hand seized a vital region with fresh water springs from Syria during both the Six Days War and the Yom Kippur War, following treaties led to some concessions but Israel still controls two-thirds of the Golan Heights and has stated numerous times that it should remain a part of Israel. It is possible that Israel’s  (in)direct involvement in the Syrian Civil War is aimed at forcing the Assad regime to hand over control of the Golan Heights to Israel for all time. It is also in a favourable position, as I mentioned earlier, where it has a surplus of fresh water that it can use to negotiate with its neighbours to get more favourable terms on certain diplomatic issues.

Cause for concern

In certain areas, more than others in the Middle East, the prospect of having a lack of fresh water supplies to meet the demands of its population may be a very big reason for concern since it might lead to increasing unrest. It is important to note that at the moment almost all of the gulf states subsidize the availability of fresh water to its (native) citizens and that at the moment there are few regulations on its usage.

Another important note is that when the Arabic Spring movement surged across many nations of the Middle East, some countries had almost no problem with large demonstrations or were able to make quick concessions and promises that eased the minds of the groups that were taking to the streets. This was the case in Morocco and many of the gulf states, to name a few. In the event that these governments fail to address this specific problem it might lead to another crisis that might lead to a drastic shift in power.

The only thing that is sure at the moment is that fresh water is of vital importance to our species, but it would seem that it could become the new currency in the Middle East in the near future.





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