The Syrian
Civil War has presented Israel with a number of opportunities to help it
solidify its influence in the region. It
is arguably one of the few surrounding countries that has actually benefitted a
lot from the turmoil. Whether the FSA, ISIS or the SDF have the upper-hand
in Syria doesn’t matter much to Israel as these factions are not allied to its
most important enemies in the region.
The
conflict weakened an enemy, since Syria and Israel are technically still at war
with one another, that has provided valuable support to another threat to
Israel in neighbouring Lebanon, the Hezbollah group. The idea that the Assad regime
could be replaced by a more moderate government that would frown upon
supporting an international labelled terror group is something that would
strengthen Israel position while it would ultimately weaken its nemesis’
position… Iran.
Israel has
provided valuable support to the FSA’s southern front in terms of weapons and
supplies and even resorted to occasionally bombing regime positions. It has
also gradually expanded its influence along the Golan Heights border region by
supporting the population there, creating an additional buffer zone. If the
Assad government could be forced to terms at some point in the conflict, it is
very much possible that Israel would want Syria to release its claim from the
Golan Heights for all eternity, strengthening its position in the region even
more by securing valuable resources, fresh water, for itself in the future.
Now that
more and more de-escalation zones have been installed across Syria, including
to the south, Israel must realize that the war has entered an entirely new
phase, as all parties are moving to secure as much territory as possible from
ISIS, taking one more player off the board.
I am
convinced that Israel has too much to gain from a weakened Syria and will seek
ways to keep the fighting in the southern part of the country going, one way or
another. The Israelis are a patient people and have been playing the long game
all along.
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