Syria: Why Israel is not interested in peace as of yet.

The Syrian Civil War has presented Israel with a number of opportunities to help it solidify its influence in the region. It is arguably one of the few surrounding countries that has actually benefitted a lot from the turmoil. Whether the FSA, ISIS or the SDF have the upper-hand in Syria doesn’t matter much to Israel as these factions are not allied to its most important enemies in the region.

The conflict weakened an enemy, since Syria and Israel are technically still at war with one another, that has provided valuable support to another threat to Israel in neighbouring Lebanon, the Hezbollah group. The idea that the Assad regime could be replaced by a more moderate government that would frown upon supporting an international labelled terror group is something that would strengthen Israel position while it would ultimately weaken its nemesis’ position… Iran.

Israel has provided valuable support to the FSA’s southern front in terms of weapons and supplies and even resorted to occasionally bombing regime positions. It has also gradually expanded its influence along the Golan Heights border region by supporting the population there, creating an additional buffer zone. If the Assad government could be forced to terms at some point in the conflict, it is very much possible that Israel would want Syria to release its claim from the Golan Heights for all eternity, strengthening its position in the region even more by securing valuable resources, fresh water, for itself in the future.

Now that more and more de-escalation zones have been installed across Syria, including to the south, Israel must realize that the war has entered an entirely new phase, as all parties are moving to secure as much territory as possible from ISIS, taking one more player off the board.

I am convinced that Israel has too much to gain from a weakened Syria and will seek ways to keep the fighting in the southern part of the country going, one way or another. The Israelis are a patient people and have been playing the long game all along.

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Syria: Why Turkey is not interested in peace as of yet

The Syrian Civil war might be an absolute nightmare in terms of destruction, casualties and complexity but it would seem that the major players in the conflict have their own goals  before they will make a genuine effort to bring an end to the fighting.

There have been some serious shifts in the balance of power during this conflict and at the moment it seems that all parties involved on the ground are taking a pause to consider their next big move in order to force a breakthrough. This article is aimed at giving an overview of the factions involved that have a lot to win and lose.

Turkey is experiencing a rapid economic growth and is very much a rising star in the region and potentially, internationally as it seeks to establish new and powerful relationships with other major countries. The Turkish president Erdoğan has taken credit for the country’s surge forward and has therefor gained the support of many of its people. Some of his plans however, are perceived as a possible threat to other factions within Turkey as Erdoğan’s rule seems increasingly more authoritarian to critics in Turkey and abroad. This mounting threat to several of Turkey’s powerful institutions, among which the military establishment, led to the failed coup attempt in 2016. President Erdoğan was quick to blame the Gülen organisation, someone who was an ally of his in the past, and began to purge Gülenist supporters across all of Turkey.

Erdoğan has also stated several times that certain regions that once belonged to Turkey’s predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, should be returned to its rightful ruler and has been a cause for concern for some its allies as Turkey’s surge in nationalism starts to lean towards chauvinism and could even strain important military alliances (NATO) and future political goals (derailing or stopping the EU talks)

Turkey has also been an important player in the Syrian Civil War as it saw an opportunity to end the Assad rule and possibly install a government that would look towards Turkey for guidance and support in the future. Things didn’t exactly turn out as everyone hoped and now Syria is locked in a bloody civil war for over seven years with thousands dead and millions more displaced. Turkey has become one of the countries that has sheltered millions of Syrian refugees and continues to provide vital support for the Internally Displaced People inside the Azaz-Jarabulus-al-Bab triangle by rebuilding vital infrastructure and providing the people with large amounts of goods.

Turkey has not let its support for numerous rebel factions waver as it continues to seek new ways to insert itself in the country and establish itself as a power player in the conflict and the region. It has even led to the direct support of rebel groups in northern Syria as Turkey launched an offensive to cut off the Syrian Democratic Forces from establishing a presence along the whole length of the Syrian-Turkish border. The fact that a possible off-shoot of the Turkish-Kurdish PKK terror organization that shares parts of its ideology is a major cause for concern. The PKK continues to cause casualties in the south-eastern part of Turkey and numerous attempts of Turkish security forces at stomping it out have led to a great deal of criticism from the international community and its European allies.

It has even led to numerous deals being put on hold or being dissolved, angering Turkish president Erdoğan. The Germans for example stopped delivering weapons to the Turks as they feared these weapons were being used against the Turkish-Kurdish people. Turkey seems to have responded by expanding its domestic military production capabilities and showing its critics that it intends to follow through on the course that has been set by its government. It also recently launched a new warship and president Erdoğan stated that Turkey aims to build a large fleet with some aircraft carriers.

This has made Turkey somewhat unpredictable as it seems perfectly fine with dealing with both sides that are currently fighting in the Syrian conflict. 





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Syria: How the Raqqa-offensive might backfire

For the past months the international media have been painting a pretty picture of the ongoing war against the Islamic State. The group’s territory and holdings have been significantly reduced thanks to the efforts of the international coalition. Several prominent players in the group’s organization were targeted and it became increasingly more difficult for the group to attract new recruits. The impressive flow of wealth the group once managed was also systematically targeted, which led to a great amount of fighters who became disgruntled by seeing their pay-outs reduced drastically.

More importantly is that the group’s core territory came under threat in both Syria and Iraq by the international coalition. In Iraq the Iraqi Army began its long-awaited offensive to liberate the Mosul, the largest and most important stronghold of the Islamic State in the country. In Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to capture more territory previously held by the terror group. Recently Tabqah was liberated and the river Euphrates was reached in several locations, isolating the city of Raqqa even more.

Although the goal is conquering Raqqa, there are still some important things to take into account. The SDF consists predominantly of Syrian Kurds who fight under the YPG-formation. This was set in motion in an attempt to defend their villages back when the Islamic State had the upper hand in the region, but it was through the Kurds’ determination, courage and sacrifices that the Islamic State suffered its first defeat at Kobanê and in other locations of the region. As the YPG continued to beat back the IS, more groups started to join the movement, and the the Syrian Democratic Forces fwas formed. As they continued to liberate more areas they set up local councils consisting of local dignitaries from the different ethnic-religious communities to govern the area together.

The SDF continues to receive more support from the United States which is something that its neighbouring country Turkey doesn’t like at all. Turkish president Erdoğan has repeatedly stated that this Kurdish faction has close ties with the Turkish-based PKK group. The fact that the SDF are receiving heavy weapons to support the push south is something that left the Turkish government fuming. The Turkish government doesn’t want to see an established zone of influence managed by Kurds on its southern border and is there for not too happy about how things are currently developing. It was because of this the Turkish government offered to take Raqqa with the FSA-rebel groups it supports.

This proposition was declined because of several reasons. These rebel groups’ battle performance wasn’t too impressive, which became painfully clear when these units tried to take the city of al-Bab from the Islamic State. After numerous setbacks Turkish forces were sent in to stop the bleeding but even then these forces suffered some embarrassing setbacks. Several of these rebel groups’ reputation had suffered as well when it was reported they used excessive violence. The fact that the Turkish progress in northern Syria was bottle-necked by both American and Russian intervention is something that Erdoğan doesn’t like at all. He clearly saw himself playing a more prominent role in this conflict and will look for new ways to insert himself once more the moment he sees his chance.

The biggest problem is that there is a certain aspect of the Raqqa-offensive that has been downplayed to a great extent, which is the humanitarian aspect. The international coalition hasn’t made any serious attempts at providing shelter, food and security for the people who are displaced because of the ongoing violence. Local sources reported for the urgent need for a better coordinated effort at a much larger scale. The administration of the Democratic Federation of northern Syria (Rojava) has become a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of people from all over Syria who were forced to flee. Recently more refugees came from Iraq’s Nineveh province when the offensive for Mosul was launched. It takes a consistent effort to shelter, feed and provide other necessary services to help these people. When thousands more will arrive because of the fighting in and around Raqqa, the situation might soon become a crisis.

The coalition doesn’t seem to have learnt any lessons from the offensive for Mosul, despite warnings from aid organisations who tried to manage the situation. It soon became clear that the prepared camps were filled to capacity and there were more people coming every day. The fight for Mosul has been going for eight months and there’s still thousands of people trapped in hostile territory, which will only lead to an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.

If we don’t want to see the same thing happening in Rojava, the SDF need to receive international humanitarian aid in order to prepare the necessary infrastructure , resources, and logistics before the offensive on Raqqa is launched. This would mean refugee camps for several hundreds of thousands of people, drinkable water, food, medicine and other means of support. These tasks have to be performed by people who are experienced in these matters which only stresses the need for more cooperation with aid organizations.

So far it looks like the international coalition, and the US in particular, are hell-bent on taking Raqqa as soon as possible. What they seem to forget is that the fight against the Islamic State is just one aspect of the conflict that is raging in Syria and that a well-established and coordinated humanitarian presence in this part of the war-torn country can play a vital role in achieving their operational goals. It could help in decreasing the amount of refugees seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, which would relieve some of the pressure on these regional partners. It could also help to set up additional de-escalation zones and could even strengthen the political position of these groups at the negotiation table, because so far the SDF weren’t invited to the table to take part in the peace process. If the humanitarian aspect of this offensive isn’t given some serious thought and the offensive starts without the necessary preparations, the SDF risks losing international political standing since it would look like they won't be able to support all these people. It could also provide the opportunity for the Assad-coalition or Turkey to open a new front and engulf this whole part of the country back into chaos.

The offensive for Raqqa has started and there is no doubt that the city will fall eventually. What the consequences will be in the long term for the SDF and the region is something time will only tell…



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If you have any questions, remarks or constructive feedback on the content or my writing, please do not hesitate to leave a comment. I would love to use this platform to interact with people to discuss topics like these and gain new perspectives and improve on my writing skills.

Note: this is an article that was written for a small editoral office in Brussels on a voluntary basis for the Kurdish Institute's bimonthly publication of The Kurds, issue n° 95, May-June 2017

the original Dutch version is also present on my blog)
URL: http://www.kurdishinstitute.be/de-keerzijde-van-het-raqqa-offensief-bart-rombouts/

Syrië: (DUTCH) De keerzijde van het Raqqa-offensief

De afgelopen maanden schetsten de internationale media een rooskleurig beeld van de strijd tegen de Islamitische Staat. Zo werd het territorium van de groepering bijna gehalveerd door de inspanningen van de internationale coalitie. Tevens werden verschillende sleutelfiguren van de organisatie uitgeschakeld en werd het aanzienlijk moeilijker voor de groepering om nieuwe rekruten aan te trekken. De indrukwekkende stroom aan inkomsten van de groepering werd ook systematisch drooggelegd, wat tot grote ontevredenheid leidde bij de militanten die tot kort daarvoor aanzienlijke sommen geld uitbetaald werden.

Belangrijker nog is dat het kerngebied van de terreurgroep in Syrië en Irak werd aangevallen door de internationale coalitie. In Irak begon het Iraakse leger het langverwachte offensief om Mosul, het grootste bolwerk van Islamitische Staat in Irak, te heroveren. In Syrië slagen de Syrische Democratische Strijdkrachten (SDF) erin successen te blijven boeken. Zo werd de strategische stad Tabqah kortgeleden nog veroverd op de terreurgroep en wisten ze ook op verschillende plaatsen de Eufraat te bereiken waardoor de stad Raqqa steeds meer geïsoleerd raakt.

Hoewel het einddoel ongetwijfeld de verovering van deze stad is, zijn er belangrijke kanttekeningen die hierbij vermeld moeten worden. De SDF bestaan voor een groot deel uit Koerden die onder de YPG-vlag strijden. Aanvankelijk streden zij vooral om hun dorpen en steden te beschermen toen IS nog de overhand in de regio had, maar het was dankzij hun vastberadenheid, moed en opoffering dat de terreurgroep de eerste zware nederlaag leed rond Kobanê en in andere delen van de regio. Naarmate de YPG meer terrein wonnen, begonnen meerdere groeperingen zich bij hen aan te sluiten, waardoor de koepelorganisatie SDF in het leven werd geroepen. In de verschillende bevrijde regio’s werden bestuursorganen opgericht bestaande uit lokale vertegenwoordigers uit de verschillende etnisch-religieuze gemeenschappen, om samen te besturen.

Dat de SDF steeds meer ondersteuning krijgen van de internationale coalitie, zint buurland Turkije helemaal niet. Zo hamerde de Turkse president Erdoğan erop dat de Koerdische afdeling van de SDF nauwe banden zou hebben met de PKK, hetgeen weerlegd werd door de groepering en de coalitie. Dat de SDF nu ook zware wapens krijgen van de Amerikanen om Raqqa te veroveren, deed de Turkse regering dan ook steigeren. De Turkse regering ziet de invloed van de Syrische Koerden in het Syrische conflict dan ook met lede ogen aan. Om die reden bood president Erdoğan dan ook een alternatief aan om Raqqa in te nemen, namelijk met behulp van Syrische rebellen die door Turkije gesteund worden.

Dit voorstel werd echter om verschillende redenen van de hand gedaan. Zo hadden de Turkse bondgenoten o.m. aanzienlijk meer moeite om hun doelstellingen te halen op het slagveld, hetgeen pijnlijk duidelijk werd toen deze eenheden de stad Al-Bab probeerden te veroveren op de Islamitische Staat. Zelfs met directe steun van Turkse eenheden leden deze nog problematische nederlagen. Daarnaast kwamen verschillende van deze Syrische eenheden in opspraak door het gebruik van buitensporig geweld. Het feit dat het Turkse voorstel van tafel geveegd werd en de Turkse invloedssfeer in Syrië nu ingedamd wordt door zowel Russisch als Amerikaans ingrijpen, zint president Erdoğan helemaal niet. Hij had namelijk een aanzienlijk grotere rol voor zichzelf weggelegd in dit conflict en zal dan ook niet aarzelen om zijn kans te grijpen zodra deze zich voordoet.

Het grootste probleem is echter dat een bepaald aspect van het offensief bijna niet aangekaart wordt, namelijk het humanitaire aspect. Tot op heden werden te weinig inspanningen geleverd door de internationale coalitie om de mensen die het geweld proberen te ontvluchten, te voorzien van onderdak en voedsel op een schaal die nodig is om in hun behoeften te voorzien. Verschillende bronnen in de regio maakten dan ook al melding van de nood aan gecoördineerde hulp op een grotere schaal. De administratie van de Democratische Federatie van Noord-Syrië (Rojava) verleent reeds geruime tijd onderdak aan honderdduizenden mensen die het geweld in andere delen van Syrië probeerden te ontvluchten. Recent zijn er ook nog vluchtelingen uit Irak bijgekomen, sinds het Iraakse leger het offensief voor Mosul inzette. Voor al deze mensen is er al een aanzienlijke stroom aan goederen nodig om in hun levensonderhoud te voorzien – als daar nog eens meer dan honderdduizend mensen bijkomen die de gevechten in en rond Raqqa gaan ontvluchten, kan de situatie snel onhoudbaar worden.

De coalitie lijkt op dit vlak geen lessen te hebben geleerd van wat het offensief in Mosul met zich heeft meebracht, ondanks de waarschuwingen van hulporganisaties die probeerden alles in goede banen te leiden. Het werd duidelijk dat de opvangkampen te snel volliepen en het werd een kwestie van dweilen met de kraan open. Ondertussen wordt er al bijna acht maanden gevochten in en rond Mosul en zitten er nog enkele honderdduizenden mensen vast in vijandig gebied, waardoor de humanitaire situatie in de nabije toekomst alleen maar zal verslechteren.

Als we niet willen dat hetzelfde zich voordoet in Rojava, moeten de SDF nu internationale steun krijgen om de nodige infrastructuur, middelen, materieel en logistiek op te bouwen voordat de aanval op Raqqa echt ingezet wordt. Dit zou neerkomen op tentenkampen voor ongeveer driehonderdduizend mensen, het voorzien van drinkbaar water, voedsel, medische en psychologische ondersteuning, en nog een hele resem andere dingen om de overgang iets of wat te vergemakkelijken. Deze taken moeten ook uitgevoerd worden door ervaren mensen en specialisten, waardoor de nood aan samenwerking met verschillende hulporganisaties alleen maar dringender wordt.

Het lijkt er steeds meer op dat de leden van de coalitie, en de VS in het bijzonder, erop uit zijn om Raqqa zo snel mogelijk in te nemen. Wat ze echter lijken te vergeten is dat de strijd tegen de Islamitische Staat maar één aspect is van het veelgelaagde conflict in de regio en dat een goed uitgebouwde humanitaire infrastructuur een cruciale rol kan spelen voor de operationele doelstellingen in de regio. Zo kan het helpen om de regionale vluchtelingenstroom aanzienlijk te verminderen, hetgeen de druk op de buurlanden zou verkleinen. Daarnaast kan het de deur openen voor het afbakenen van aanvullende de-escalatiezones en kan het de politieke positie van deze partijen in het vredesproces versterken, want tot op heden werden de SDF niet uitgenodigd aan de onderhandelingstafel.

Indien het humanitaire aspect niet aangekaart wordt en het offensief op Raqqa ingezet wordt zonder dat de nodige voorbereidingen worden getroffen, lopen de SDF de kans om internationaal krediet te verliezen, doordat ze niet zullen kunnen voorzien in de noden van deze mensen. Daarnaast zou het als een potentieel motief gebruikt kunnen worden door zowel het Assad-regime als Turkije om in de toekomst nieuwe stappen te zetten om de bevrijde regio’s terug in chaos te storten.

Ondertussen is het offensief op Raqqa van start gegaan en er bestaat geen twijfel over dat de stad vroeg of laat zal vallen. Wat de gevolgen op lange termijn echter zullen zijn voor de regio en de SDF, zal de toekomst moeten uitwijzen.

Opmerking: Dit artikel verscheen in het magazine van het Koerdisch Instituut: De Koerden
(Jaargang 17, n°95, mei-juni 2017)
URL: http://www.kurdishinstitute.be/de-keerzijde-van-het-raqqa-offensief-bart-rombouts/