USA - Middle East: Donald Trump severely compromised U.S foreign policy in the Middle East

During the presidential election campaign of 2016 Donald Trump quickly made headlines with his bold statements on domestic and foreign issues. He would repeal and replace Obamacare, build a great southern wall “to keep the bad guys out,” rebuild the aging American infrastructure and turn the fight with the Islamic State into high gear by “bombing the shit out of them.”

Trump’s controversial travel ban, aimed at monitoring and decreasing the arrival of Muslims from a number of Middle Eastern countries for so-called security reasons, caused a major uproar as thousands of people took to the streets across the States to voice their concerns over the direction this new administration was taking their country. Although the first draft was dismissed,  the administration made it clear that it would put it forward again as the threat was real and it was only a matter of time before an attack took place without the necessary precautions. The American Supreme Court recently decided to allow certain parts of the ban to be implemented although there are still ambiguous terms in there that will cause problems in the near future.

President Trump’s unique insights on how to revitalize the American economy would lead to the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord as there was no convincing argument regarding global warming. The (non-binding) agreement was extremely hard on the United States’ coal mining industry while other global powers such as India and China could even increase their emission output. The Dakota Pipeline project that was put on hold because of environmental concerns was restarted despite protests and concerns from several politicians. As the whole world continues to put its hope in renewable energies, the Trump administration sticks to coal and oil and now even has plans to expand its fracking operations, something that was deemed too expensive before and could potentially be dangerous to the countries’ water supplies although these concerns are dismissed because at the moment there haven’t been any conclusive studies.

After taking office, Trump was quick to resurrect and push through an arms deal with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, worth over one billion dollars, which was tabled under the Obama administration because it was considered immoral as the ordnance might be used in the Syrian conflict as well as Yemen. The Trump administration had no such qualms as it was “a great deal” that would result in a major boost of the American economy and a much-needed win for the president. Trump was also quick to pick the Saudis’ side in their beef with Qatar as the Wahhabi kingdom moves to send a clear message through the Arabian peninsula that working with its regional nemesis Iran would be very unwise. Interestingly the rest of the administration was more hesitant to declare a side as Qatar hosts an important American base that provides the U.S. with a foothold in the region.

Trump also took the gloves off in the fight against the Islamic State as the air campaign against the terror group was intensified and additional forces were sent to provide training and indirect fire support in the campaigns in Mosul and Raqqa. This escalation resulted in a noticeable increase in civilian casualties, something the previous administration tried to avoid. Although it has to be said that this number could only increase as the fighting would intensify in urban areas, dropping heavy ordnance on civilian infrastructure when it is known that civilians are used as human shields sends the wrong message to the people you’re trying to liberate and get on your side, period.

The Trump administration’s attitude towards the Assad regime has changed a number of times as they initially wanted him gone, then wanted him to stay to provide some stability in the transition period (when it still looked like the status quo was still somewhat in effect). However after the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province the administration called Assad unfit for office and even fired Tomahawk missiles toward a Syrian airbase “to send a clear message,” only to declare a few months later (by Rex Tillerson) that Assad’s future should be determined by Russia, effectively declaring that Russia was in the driving seat from then on. This constant shifting does not inspire confidence in the US’ long-time allies and the proxies it is backing on the ground.

Trump’s newest attempt to show his diplomatic prowess may very well be the final nail in the coffin for the American influence in the Syrian conflict and the region. By ending the CIA-funded arming program in support for these groups it can only spell certain doom for them as the American-supplied Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs) are an essential part of the rebels’ strategy in holding the Assad forces at bay. Even worse is that it was done to mend the relationship with Russia, a backer of Assad, which could be perceived by the rebel groups as a form of betrayal. What few moderate groups remain in Syria are now at risk of disbanding completely or being absorbed by more radical groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. This group is one of the dominant factions in the opposition and currently moves to secure its hold over the other rebel groups in Idlib province.

It is very possible that this initial dismay could turn into an anti-American (or anti-western) attitude which could lead to an effective recruiting ground for terror groups that aim to carry out attacks against western installations or assets in the region or even on their home turf. This could lead to a difficult relationship with its regional partners, for example the kingdom of Jordan, as they could get caught in the crossfire. Other partners who are have been looking for opportunities to increase their influence and role in the region, Turkey and Israel, might even distance themselves further from the Trump as they begin to set their own course that serves their own interests best, rather than looking towards the U.S. for approval.

It looks like Trump’s policy of ‘America First’ is becoming reality, but not the way he intended…By charting a course for the U.S. that serves its own agenda this administration will continue to alienate the country from its allies and erode the foundations of several important institutions it was one a prominent member of… ‘America First’ could very well become ‘America Alone’ while other countries move in to fill the vacuum.

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Syria: Why Turkey is not interested in peace as of yet

The Syrian Civil war might be an absolute nightmare in terms of destruction, casualties and complexity but it would seem that the major players in the conflict have their own goals  before they will make a genuine effort to bring an end to the fighting.

There have been some serious shifts in the balance of power during this conflict and at the moment it seems that all parties involved on the ground are taking a pause to consider their next big move in order to force a breakthrough. This article is aimed at giving an overview of the factions involved that have a lot to win and lose.

Turkey is experiencing a rapid economic growth and is very much a rising star in the region and potentially, internationally as it seeks to establish new and powerful relationships with other major countries. The Turkish president Erdoğan has taken credit for the country’s surge forward and has therefor gained the support of many of its people. Some of his plans however, are perceived as a possible threat to other factions within Turkey as Erdoğan’s rule seems increasingly more authoritarian to critics in Turkey and abroad. This mounting threat to several of Turkey’s powerful institutions, among which the military establishment, led to the failed coup attempt in 2016. President Erdoğan was quick to blame the Gülen organisation, someone who was an ally of his in the past, and began to purge Gülenist supporters across all of Turkey.

Erdoğan has also stated several times that certain regions that once belonged to Turkey’s predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, should be returned to its rightful ruler and has been a cause for concern for some its allies as Turkey’s surge in nationalism starts to lean towards chauvinism and could even strain important military alliances (NATO) and future political goals (derailing or stopping the EU talks)

Turkey has also been an important player in the Syrian Civil War as it saw an opportunity to end the Assad rule and possibly install a government that would look towards Turkey for guidance and support in the future. Things didn’t exactly turn out as everyone hoped and now Syria is locked in a bloody civil war for over seven years with thousands dead and millions more displaced. Turkey has become one of the countries that has sheltered millions of Syrian refugees and continues to provide vital support for the Internally Displaced People inside the Azaz-Jarabulus-al-Bab triangle by rebuilding vital infrastructure and providing the people with large amounts of goods.

Turkey has not let its support for numerous rebel factions waver as it continues to seek new ways to insert itself in the country and establish itself as a power player in the conflict and the region. It has even led to the direct support of rebel groups in northern Syria as Turkey launched an offensive to cut off the Syrian Democratic Forces from establishing a presence along the whole length of the Syrian-Turkish border. The fact that a possible off-shoot of the Turkish-Kurdish PKK terror organization that shares parts of its ideology is a major cause for concern. The PKK continues to cause casualties in the south-eastern part of Turkey and numerous attempts of Turkish security forces at stomping it out have led to a great deal of criticism from the international community and its European allies.

It has even led to numerous deals being put on hold or being dissolved, angering Turkish president Erdoğan. The Germans for example stopped delivering weapons to the Turks as they feared these weapons were being used against the Turkish-Kurdish people. Turkey seems to have responded by expanding its domestic military production capabilities and showing its critics that it intends to follow through on the course that has been set by its government. It also recently launched a new warship and president Erdoğan stated that Turkey aims to build a large fleet with some aircraft carriers.

This has made Turkey somewhat unpredictable as it seems perfectly fine with dealing with both sides that are currently fighting in the Syrian conflict. 





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If you have any questions, remarks or constructive feedback on the content or my writing, please do not hesitate to leave a comment. I would love to use this platform to interact with people to discuss topics like these and gain new perspectives and improve on my writing skills.

Syria: Why the Assad-coalition is not interested in peace as of yet

The Syrian Civil war might be an absolute nightmare in terms of destruction, casualties and political complexity but it would seem that the major players in the conflict have their own goals before they will make a genuine effort to bring an end to the fighting.

There have been some serious shifts in the balance of power during this conflict and at the moment it seems that all parties involved are taking a moment to consider their next big move in order to force a breakthrough. This article is aimed at giving an overview of the factions involved that have a lot to win and lose.

The Assad-coalition:

The Assad-regime

The Assad regime consists of mainly a Shia minority (and members from other ethno-religious communities who have proven their loyalty) in the government and the broad security and military apparatus that was established back in the 70s when Hafez al-Assad took power.

The Assad regime had to deal with numerous setbacks early on in the Syrian Uprising as thousands of men that were called upon to return to the barracks and take up arms against the rebels, refused to do so. They either joined the opposition groups or fled to neighbouring countries to avoid being drafted. What meagre forces that could be mustered had to be bolstered with patriotic and opportunistic men who joined the National Defence Forces and were given weapons to hold onto as much territory as possible while the regime’s elite units were rushing from one crisis to another. As much of the country’s wealth is in the hands of the privileged few, many chose to back the regime out of necessity and survival rather than duty since a defeat would result in the loss of all their assets in Syria. 

Its initial strategy to have a military presence in all corners of Syria in order to argue that it remains in control of its sovereign territory resulted in the Syrian Arab Forces being dispersed to a dangerous level. The regime was therefor forced to carefully pick and choose its battles to avoid losses that it could not replenish afterwards, or having to defend territory that it would not be able to hold. As the different opposition groups moved against Assad forces, it often came down to the commanders in the field to make the difference. For example, When Deir ez-Zour came under siege by the jihadists of the Islamic State and was under serious threat, republican guard general Issam Zahreddine was sent in to hold onto the city at all costs. His leadership skills and inspiring presence at the front lines helped the men under his command to hold onto the territory despite being under tremendous pressure. Another example is the commander of the now famous Tiger Forces, Suheil al-Hassan, his unwavering loyalty and leadership made him the ideal candidate to lead an elite unit that would be the deciding factor in numerous offensives across Syria, whether it was blocking an enemy offensive and reversing all their gains or spearheading an offensive.

Bashar al-Assad vowed to retake all of Syria many times and now, with the backing of powerful regional and global powers, it would seem that he is well on his way to do so. It seems unlikely that he will accept an agreement which would result in the division of Syrian territory or where he would be forced to share power with both moderates and the extremists. He is clearly set on taking every inch back and keep it in a tight grasp.

The true cost of the war, however, is something that might be impossible to predict at the moment. The regime has always claimed that its elaborate security apparatus was necessary to prevent extremist groups from gaining a foothold in Syria. At the moment al-Assad has managed to present himself as the defender of the Syrian people from the extremists and opportunists who would see an end to Syria if it were to serve their own goals. This had led to an increased popularity among the people, even among the people who became disillusioned with how the rebels' misconduct and mismanagement began to hurt the ideals of the Syrian Uprising. 

It could very well be that one of the causes for the Syrian Uprising could be enforced even harsher when the Assad regime regains control of Syria, leading to an all-out purge of any form of dissent against the regime. It is also unclear what kind of deals were made with its allies in exchange for the enormous amount of support in manpower, materials and logistics. It may very well be that in order for Syria's survival, al-Assad might have sold his soul and that of his country.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah has been very much dependant on the support it received from the Assad regime in terms of weapons, logistics, training and finances by acting as an access point for Iran to continue a strong presence in Lebanon and countering the Israeli influence there.

The fall of the Assad regime could have meant an end to this support as a government that looked more favourable towards the West and would not seek to continue to fund this terror organization, as designated by numerous western countries and regional allies. Hezbollah backing the Assad regime was there for a matter of survival, but of opportunity as well.

It was able to test its organization’s military capabilities by actively taking part in the fighting and launching offensives in a variety of combat zones across Syria. The experience it gained by doing this allowed the organization to boost its political presence in the region and more importantly, test out and adjust its tactics and strategies based on the successes it had in the field and send a clear signal to adversaries that it is still a force to be reckoned with.

Iran

Iran is one of the few countries that has actually managed to capitalize on the turmoil in the al-Sham region as has now more influence, both political and military, than (ever) before.

 It has (in)directly supported moves by the Shia communities to gain more political and military prominence in both theatres of war. In Iraq it was the main supporter for the Popular Mobilization Units that were eager to take the fight to ISIS forces when they were on the verge of breaking through to Baghdad. In Syria it was responsible for providing valuable strategic advice and supplementing elite Iranian forces to help turn the tide in several critical battles. One of Iran’s prominent generals and commander and of the al Quds force, Qasem Soleimani, has been Iran’s most valuable asset in the region as he was responsible for the most important offensives which Shia units launched successfully against both ISIS (in Iraq) and rebel forces (in Syria).

Iran aims to keep the Shia dominant minority in power at all costs as it has invested a lot of time and resources in the regime for its long-term strategic objectives in the region. It is there for more than likely that Iran will continue to support Assad in its efforts to regain control of the whole of Syria and therefor putting an end to the presence of western coalition forces in Syria. It has already begun its elaborate plan by launching an offensive in north-western Iraq with the help of PMU forces to gain control of an important military airbase to the south of Tal-Afar, which can be used as a launch point against future attacks across the Syrian-Iraqi border into northern Syria’s SDF territory, forcing them to fight on numerous fronts.

Iran is also moving on establishing closer ties with some of the nations in the Arabian Peninsula, which is basically its nemesis’ back yard. The Saudis have been fighting a war in Yemen for some time now and have little to show for it. Its forces have suffered embarrassing defeats at the hands of Yemeni fighters on the ground, but Saudi warplanes keep attacking Yemen’s populated areas resulting a high civilian casualties. The Saudis’ reputation has suffered internationally because of this.

Russia

Russia is the second country that managed to capitalize on the turmoil in the region as it has established itself as a prominent powerbroker in the regional theatre as well as on the international stage. Before that the country was basically ‘in the doghouse’.

Russia’s (for the most part) successful campaign has given Putin international prestige for acting decisively against international terror groups whereas the West was blamed for supporting the enemy of their enemy in order to get what they wanted, resulting in a loss of face and credibility as a major player in the conflict.

The war has also provided the Russian armed forces with a valuable opportunity to test their new equipment in a real battlefield and already suggestions for enhancements were made to make their equipment even more efficient in future warzones. It also saw the first Russian aircraft carrier of the Kuznetsov class perform in a theatre of war.

The participation in the Syrian Civil War has also provided Russia with a way to boost its economy as the new Russian hardware that is used on the battlefield, has attracted the attention of numerous would-be buyers, countries that before that were customers with western manufacturers. The cutting-edge technology and the battle performance of the newest Russian armoured vehicles and helicopters had a major impact on and off the battlefield.

Its alliance with the Syrian regime has also resulted in the agreement of having a permanent presence in the region as Russia will continue to have a military presence in the airbase and the naval base it currently uses, giving it a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

It is also very likely that Syria will become one of Russia’s most important trading partners in a post-conflict scenario as I think Russia will be one of the few suppliers of all the materials and hardware needed in the rebuilding effort. 





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If you have any questions, remarks or constructive feedback on the content or my writing, please do not hesitate to leave a comment. I would love to use this platform to interact with people to discuss topics like these and gain new perspectives and improve on my writing skills.

(Middle East) Fault Lines in the Middle East: Fresh water

A basic necessity

As the population of the world continues to grow, our global reserves of natural resources are pushed to their limits in order to meet these demands. One of these resources, clean drinkable water, could have been taken for granted for too long and as it becomes more valuable year after year, it could become a serious point of contention in the near future in the region.

Historically, our species quickly understood the importance of fresh water to sustain its survival in the long term and many of the first settlements could be found next to large regional rivers, such as the Nile river in Egypt, the Euphrates and Tigris river in Mesopotamia, Indus in South Asia and the Yellow river in modern China.

Local rivers or wells could supply the fresh water that was needed in the fields or domestic usage, but as our species’ population exponentially began to increase, the demand for fresh water rose dramatically. New wells were dug across the region which lowered the ground water level and it was unable to replenish at the rate that it was pumped up, making matters worse over time. A good example of this is the Jordan river, where the water level dropped drastically in just over a decade. Where people used to be at the risk of drowning, they can now stand in the river up to their wastes.

The building of dams was also a viable option but it lead to neighbouring countries that were depending on the same river complaining about a certain amount of water that had to be guaranteed at all times, leading to regional tensions. This was the case when Turkey built a dam on the Euphrates river of which both Syria and Iraq were depending for their own needs. Intensive negotiations took place in order to ensure that all countries involved were ensured of their fair share of fresh water.

Some countries were lucky to find new large deposits of fresh water that they could start using to meet the country’s demands. Libya found a large aquifer in the southern part of the country and started an enormous project, the Great Man-Made River project, to get the necessary infrastructure in place to pump it to the coastal areas.

Desalination as a possible solution

Israel is one of the few countries in the region that is affluent when it comes to fresh water supply. Although it used to suffer from water shortages, efforts have been made to turns things drastically around. Not only was there a broad spectrum of information that was used to sensitize the population of the importance of not wasting fresh water, but new research led to large facilities where salt water could be converted into fresh water through desalination. Through this process the Israeli population could be supplies with a large amount of fresh water in a relative short of time.

The success of this project led to many other countries undertaking similar projects and in the gulf region there are now dozens of desalination plants. Problem solved? Not quite. There is still not enough information at hand whether desalination is the solution to the problem of fresh water shortages. The desalination process produces a very concentrated waste that is dumped back into the sea. Because of lack of data about the possible effects on the ecosystem and biodiversity no efforts were made to regulate how the waste should be processed before being released back into the sea (or if the concentrate should be released at all). 

Desalination is also very energy-intensive as the process basically involves pushing large quantities of water through numerous layers of membranes that filter the various unwanted elements out of the water before distributing it into the local grid. Numerous plants were also built that aimed to turn the waste from domestic usage back into usable water supplies that could be used to water crops, resulting in a system that re-uses the available water supply many times over.

Water politics

It has been proven that having control of a vital supply of fresh water provides a lot of leverage and could over time even be used as effective as any other weapon of war.

After the establishment of the caliphate, Turkey drastically cut the water flow into Syria resulting in a dramatic drop of the water level along the Euphrates’ numerous settlements. When the situation worsened the jihadists even threatened to march on the Turkish capital ‘and force them to release the water needed’. Now that the Syrian Democratic Forces control large swathes of the Euphrates river, one who is also an enemy of Turkey, it could resort to similar tactics to force the organisation to accept unfavourable terms in the future.

A similar situation could be developing between the Kurdish Regional Government and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The KRG has stated several times that there wasn’t enough water flowing into the western part of the region because Iran had altered the flow. This could be to increase pressure on the KRG for its support of Iranian Kurds who are also pressing their claim in Iran for more equality, the recognition of their cultural identity and reforms.

Israel on the other hand seized a vital region with fresh water springs from Syria during both the Six Days War and the Yom Kippur War, following treaties led to some concessions but Israel still controls two-thirds of the Golan Heights and has stated numerous times that it should remain a part of Israel. It is possible that Israel’s  (in)direct involvement in the Syrian Civil War is aimed at forcing the Assad regime to hand over control of the Golan Heights to Israel for all time. It is also in a favourable position, as I mentioned earlier, where it has a surplus of fresh water that it can use to negotiate with its neighbours to get more favourable terms on certain diplomatic issues.

Cause for concern

In certain areas, more than others in the Middle East, the prospect of having a lack of fresh water supplies to meet the demands of its population may be a very big reason for concern since it might lead to increasing unrest. It is important to note that at the moment almost all of the gulf states subsidize the availability of fresh water to its (native) citizens and that at the moment there are few regulations on its usage.

Another important note is that when the Arabic Spring movement surged across many nations of the Middle East, some countries had almost no problem with large demonstrations or were able to make quick concessions and promises that eased the minds of the groups that were taking to the streets. This was the case in Morocco and many of the gulf states, to name a few. In the event that these governments fail to address this specific problem it might lead to another crisis that might lead to a drastic shift in power.

The only thing that is sure at the moment is that fresh water is of vital importance to our species, but it would seem that it could become the new currency in the Middle East in the near future.





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If you have any questions, remarks or constructive feedback on the content or my writing, please do not hesitate to leave a comment. I would love to use this platform to interact with people to discuss topics like these and gain new perspectives and improve on my writing skills.