Mosul has
been liberated after almost nine months of gruesome fighting and Iraqi forces
move to secure its western borders and attack the last ISIS-pocket in the
Hawija region. In Syria the terror group is losing ground fast in central Syria
as Assad forces are gaining ground fast and moving east in an effort to lift
the siege on Deir Ez-Zour while Raqqa is being attacked by US-backed forces. Most
of the self-proclaimed caliphate’s prominent commanders are dead and it’s
caliph is rumoured to be dead as well. It
would seem like the once unstoppable and feared Islamic State is clinging on to
life and will soon be defeated. But how does a region recover from a chapter as
violent as this and how do these governments move forward without making the
mistakes that could lead to a similar outcome?
The Iraqi
government has a great number of hurdles to overcome if it seeks to establish
itself as a credible government for its citizens, the region and the world. There’s
the sectarian divide, the lack of confidence in the central government, a lack
of structure, vision and compensation in the rebuilding effort in the numerous
towns and cities that have to be rebuilt, insecurity on how jihadists, their
families and supporters will be dealt with by the courts, if at all. And there
is much, much more to needs to be addressed…
The
conflict in Iraq has left a deep
sectarian divide between its numerous communities and if it is not
addressed in a way where it succeeds in convincing these communities to come
and work together for a better future it is only a matter of time before a new
group seeks to undermine the government and plunges the country into chaos once
more. It is not just the Sunni, Shia but the numerous other ethnic minorities
that mustn’t be forgotten now as the trauma and horror they had to suffer
through has basically destroyed their trust in people that are not of their
community. Kurds, Christians, Syriacs, Yazidis and Turkmen and all the others
need to be involved in the new social and political process and they should be
given a place to voice the concerns of their respective communities.
Confidence has to be restored in the central
government by
ending the widespread corruption that has caused so many problems and dissent
in the Iraqi society. Launching numerous infrastructure projects could the
people back to work so they can start providing an income for themselves.
Roads, houses, plants would be rebuilt and the people could start to move back
into a place of their own. Priority should be given to vital infrastructure and
large housing projects and gradually expanding it across the rest of the area.
All the
communities in Iraq need to be given the
assurance that justice will be another of the top priorities of its
government, by eventually putting all the jihadists whether they are Iraqi or
foreigners that have been captured on trial for their crimes against the Iraqi
people. They could also be put on trial in their own countries as well as the
Hague. It could provide some closure for the people and would establish a
credible foundation that the time of executions in dark cells and behind closed
doors is over. It also sends a clear signal to the surviving members of the
group and possible recruits in the region and the rest of the world. The need
for a process here is because there needs to be an attempt to distinguish the
hard-core believers from those who collaborated and those who were forced in
the movement. For example, numerous young women were married to jihadists so
that a family member could gain a more prominent position within the
organization. These women and their children are now at risk of being evicted,
exiled or even being killed as they are branded as a part of the organization. The
exclusion and shunning of these single-parent families could result in
frustrated, disconnected youths that could be preyed upon by extremist groups.
There is
also the matter of the Kurdish Regional
Government that seeks to become an independent state. The Iraqi Kurds’
fight against ISIS has allowed them to conquer a lot of territory which they
now lay claim to. Several of these territories are disputed by Baghdad and it
is unclear as of yet whether these territories will be returned to Iraqi
control. Resolving these issues would go a long way to providing security for
the new border regions and the population growing increasingly weary of the
possibility of a new conflict.
The influence of Iran in Iraq has also be checked and its proxies
in the country, the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) need to be disbanded. More
importantly, their weapons need to be turned over to the regular Iraqi forces
to avoid that these will be used to force the Iraqi government to comply with
Teheran’s wishes.
The Iraqi
government has to move fast and decisively because the clock is ticking. Now that victory has been declared over ISIS
in Mosul the thousands of displaced people will want to return to their homes.
With the city in ruins and no access to drinkable water, electricity or health
services it is only a matter of time before the people will start to voice
their concerns. Iraqi security forces will have to deal with this in a correct
manner to avoid unnecessary escalations, since there are already reports of
illegal executions by government forces of suspected jihadists in the Mosul
area and it won’t be long until the finger-pointing will lead to the arrests
and deaths of innocent people.
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