For the
past months the international media have been painting a pretty picture of the
ongoing war against the Islamic State. The group’s territory and holdings have
been significantly reduced thanks to the efforts of the international coalition.
Several prominent players in the group’s organization were targeted and it
became increasingly more difficult for the group to attract new recruits. The
impressive flow of wealth the group once managed was also systematically targeted,
which led to a great amount of fighters who became disgruntled by seeing their pay-outs
reduced drastically.
More
importantly is that the group’s core territory came under threat in both Syria
and Iraq by the international coalition. In Iraq the Iraqi Army began its
long-awaited offensive to liberate the Mosul, the largest and most important
stronghold of the Islamic State in the country. In Syria the Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) continue to capture more territory previously held by the terror
group. Recently Tabqah was liberated and the river Euphrates was reached in
several locations, isolating the city of Raqqa even more.
Although
the goal is conquering Raqqa, there are still some important things to take
into account. The SDF consists predominantly of Syrian Kurds who fight under
the YPG-formation. This was set in motion in an attempt to defend their
villages back when the Islamic State had the upper hand in the region, but it
was through the Kurds’ determination, courage and sacrifices that the Islamic
State suffered its first defeat at Kobanê and in other locations of the region.
As the YPG continued to beat back the IS, more groups started to join the
movement, and the the Syrian Democratic Forces fwas formed. As
they continued to liberate more areas they set up local councils consisting of
local dignitaries from the different ethnic-religious communities to govern the
area together.
The SDF
continues to receive more support from the United States which is something
that its neighbouring country Turkey doesn’t like at all. Turkish president Erdoğan has
repeatedly stated that this Kurdish faction has close ties with the
Turkish-based PKK group. The fact that the SDF are receiving heavy weapons to
support the push south is something that left the Turkish government fuming.
The Turkish government doesn’t want to see an established zone of influence
managed by Kurds on its southern border and is there for not too happy about how
things are currently developing. It was because of this the Turkish government offered to
take Raqqa with the FSA-rebel groups it supports.
This
proposition was declined because of several reasons. These rebel groups’ battle
performance wasn’t too impressive, which became painfully clear when these
units tried to take the city of al-Bab from the Islamic State. After numerous
setbacks Turkish forces were sent in to stop the bleeding but even then these
forces suffered some embarrassing setbacks. Several of these rebel groups’
reputation had suffered as well when it was reported they used excessive
violence. The fact that the Turkish progress in northern Syria was
bottle-necked by both American and Russian intervention is something that Erdoğan doesn’t
like at all. He clearly saw himself playing a more prominent role in this
conflict and will look for new ways to insert himself once more the moment he
sees his chance.
The biggest
problem is that there is a certain aspect of the Raqqa-offensive that has been
downplayed to a great extent, which is the humanitarian aspect. The international
coalition hasn’t made any serious attempts at providing shelter, food and
security for the people who are displaced because of the ongoing violence. Local
sources reported for the urgent need for a better coordinated effort at a much
larger scale. The administration of the Democratic Federation of northern Syria
(Rojava) has become a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of people from all
over Syria who were forced to flee. Recently more refugees came from Iraq’s
Nineveh province when the offensive for Mosul was launched. It takes a
consistent effort to shelter, feed and provide other necessary services to help
these people. When thousands more will arrive because of the fighting in and
around Raqqa, the situation might soon become a crisis.
The
coalition doesn’t seem to have learnt any lessons from the offensive for
Mosul, despite warnings from aid organisations who
tried to manage the situation. It soon became clear that the prepared camps
were filled to capacity and there were more people coming every day. The fight
for Mosul has been going for eight months and there’s still thousands of people
trapped in hostile territory, which will only lead to an even greater
humanitarian catastrophe.
If we don’t
want to see the same thing happening in Rojava, the SDF need to receive
international humanitarian aid in order to prepare the necessary infrastructure
, resources, and logistics before the offensive on Raqqa is launched. This
would mean refugee camps for several hundreds of thousands of people, drinkable
water, food, medicine and other means of support. These tasks have to be
performed by people who are experienced in these matters which only stresses
the need for more cooperation with aid organizations.
So far it
looks like the international coalition, and the US in particular, are hell-bent
on taking Raqqa as soon as possible. What they seem to forget is that the fight
against the Islamic State is just one aspect of the conflict that is raging in
Syria and that a well-established and coordinated humanitarian presence
in this part of the war-torn country can play a vital role in achieving their
operational goals. It could help in decreasing the amount of refugees seeking
refuge in neighbouring countries, which would relieve some of the pressure on
these regional partners. It could also help to set up additional de-escalation
zones and could even strengthen the political position of these groups at the
negotiation table, because so far the SDF weren’t invited to the table to take
part in the peace process. If the
humanitarian aspect of this offensive isn’t given some serious thought and the
offensive starts without the necessary preparations, the SDF risks losing
international political standing since it would look like they won't be able to support all these
people. It could also provide the opportunity for the Assad-coalition or Turkey
to open a new front and engulf this whole part of the country back into chaos.
The
offensive for Raqqa has started and there is no doubt that the city will fall
eventually. What the consequences will be in the long term for the SDF and the
region is something time will only tell…
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If you have any questions, remarks or constructive feedback on the content or my writing, please do not hesitate to leave a comment. I would love to use this platform to interact with people to discuss topics like these and gain new perspectives and improve on my writing skills.
Note: this is an article that was written for a small editoral office in Brussels on a voluntary basis for the Kurdish Institute's bimonthly publication of The Kurds, issue n° 95, May-June 2017
the original Dutch version is also present on my blog)
URL: http://www.kurdishinstitute.be/de-keerzijde-van-het-raqqa-offensief-bart-rombouts/
URL: http://www.kurdishinstitute.be/de-keerzijde-van-het-raqqa-offensief-bart-rombouts/
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